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II

Innventure, Inc. (INV)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue remained modest at $0.48M, while GAAP EPS was $(1.60); results were dominated by a non-cash goodwill impairment of $113.3M related to share-price/mkt-cap declines. Adjusted EBITDA loss improved sequentially to $(16.2)M from $(21.8)M in Q1, reflecting lower G&A and continued cost discipline .
  • Accelsius momentum advanced: deployments at Global Switch, Computacenter and Equinix; first hyperscaler proof-of-concept slated for delivery by end of Q3; OEM white-label orders started and partner network expanded to 21—management reiterated an H2 ’25 bookings and revenue inflection narrative .
  • Liquidity bolstered by $30M Yorkville convertible debentures ($27M cash received) and $5M restricted cash covenant under WTI facility; the 10-Q nonetheless cites substantial doubt as a going concern absent additional financing and execution on H2 ramp .
  • Versus S&P consensus, Q2 revenue missed ($0.48M vs $0.69M), while normalized EPS beat (0.586 vs -0.17) given non-GAAP treatment; estimate breadth remains thin (3 revenue/EPS estimates), implying high model volatility for traders. Key catalysts are hyperscaler POCs, OEM ramp, and announced deployments converting to production * [GetEstimates].

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Accelsius commercial traction: “recent deployments at Global Switch, Compucenter and Equinix facilities” and “industry‑leading thermal milestones” on NeuCool two‑phase D2C technology .
    • Pipeline quality and breadth improved: first hyperscaler POC (delivery by end of Q3), discussions with two additional hyperscalers, OEM orders beginning to ramp, partner network grew to 21 including Avnet, Computacenter and Park Place .
    • Sequential operating improvement: Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $(16.2)M from $(21.8)M in Q1; G&A declined to ~$18.6M from ~$19.7M, aided by lower external professional services and ongoing cost management .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Revenue remained de minimis and missed consensus ($0.48M vs $0.69M), with sales/orders still back‑half weighted as customers navigate long integration and deployment timelines; consolidated cost of sales exceeded revenue due to amortization and ramp costs * [GetEstimates].
    • Large non‑cash goodwill impairment ($113.3M in Q2; $346.6M YTD) tied to share price/market cap declines weighed heavily on GAAP results and highlights sensitivity to market volatility .
    • Liquidity risk remains: despite $27M proceeds from debentures, the 10‑Q discloses “substantial doubt” as a going concern absent additional financings and H2 execution; debt service, SEPA usage, and warrant/earnout liabilities add complexity .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.456 $0.224 $0.476
GAAP EPS (Basic & Diluted)$(1.42) $(3.10) $(1.60)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(51.26) $(248.0) $(135.21)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(11.67) $(21.82) $(16.18)

Segment revenue mix – Q2 2025:

SegmentRevenue ($USD Millions)
Technology (Accelsius)$0.254
Other (platform/ESG/Refinity)$0.249
Elimination$(0.027)
Consolidated$0.476

Selected KPIs and balance items – Q2 2025:

KPI/ItemQ2 2025
Goodwill impairment (Q2 only)$113.344M
Cash & restricted cash (end of period)$11.965M
Inventory$6.620M
Debenture cash proceeds in Q2$27.0M
Restricted cash covenant (WTI consent)$5.0M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent UpdateChange
Revenue trajectoryH2 2025“Reiterates confidence in achieving revenue growth inflection during the second half of 2025” (Q1 PR) “Positioning the company for a successful second half of 2025”; CFO: “expect most sales orders, bookings and early stage revenue to be weighted to the second half of the year” Maintained (directional)
Bookings outlook (Accelsius)2025—CEO: “anticipate an inflection in commercial bookings” New directional color
Quantitative revenue/EPS2025NoneNone providedNo change

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’24 & Q1’25)Current Period (Q2’25)Trend
AI / data center liquid coolingQ1: Deep dive on Accelsius opportunity; leads up 300% since early 2025; OEM white‑label; partner adds Deployments at Global Switch, Computacenter, Equinix; initial hyperscaler POC by end Q3; partner network to 21; positive Jacobs Engineering cost study (28–40% better vs single-phase water) Strengthening execution and market validation
Supply chain & manufacturingQ1: CM relationship can support 10k+ racks; 90‑day fulfillment for large orders; North America–centric supply chain New 30k sq ft Austin manufacturing site; strategy to keep 25–30% in‑house and flex with CMs Capacity scaling, risk mitigation
Macro/tariffs & timingQ1: H1 slowdown attributed to tariffs uncertainty and NVIDIA roadmap timing H2 weighting reiterated (orders → deliveries lag typical by 2–3 quarters) Near‑term headwinds easing; timing clarity
Product performanceQ1: Two‑phase D2C benefits vs single‑phase; free cooling advantage; higher rack densities roadmap Independent study (Jacobs) shows 28%–40% OpEx benefit vs single‑phase; warranty and dielectric fluid risk mitigation Third‑party validation adds credibility
R&D & IP (AeroFlexx)—APR Critical Guidance recyclability recognition; two U.S. patents strengthening IP Positive non‑Accelsius proof points
Liquidity & capitalQ1: $27M debenture proceeds in April/May; founders converted ~$18M related-party debt to equity Going concern “substantial doubt”; $27M cash inflow from debentures; WTI restricted cash covenant Higher balance‑sheet complexity; continued financing focus

Management Commentary

  • CEO Bill Haskell: “We firmly believe the remainder of 2025 will be an inflection point for revenue growth across the enterprise… Accelsius further strengthened its market position… AeroFlexx generated its fourth consecutive quarter of revenue… Refinity engaged an EPC partner for its first plant design.”
  • Accelsius CEO Josh Claman: “Our Q2 bookings were greater than all bookings going to market before that… best estimate for Q3 is that bookings will be a multiple of the Q2 level.”
  • CFO Dave Yablunosky: “EBITDA for the quarter was a loss of approximately $135M… Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $16.2M, an improvement from a loss of $21.8M in the first quarter… we received net proceeds of $27M from the Yorkville convertible debentures.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Bookings and mix: Management emphasized a bookings inflection with order sizes rising from POCs to production, driving H2 weighting; orders can lead deliveries by 2–3 quarters in complex environments .
  • Hyperscaler POCs: First hyperscaler POC underway with expectation to deliver by end Q3; additional hyperscalers targeted in 2025; scale could be “big,” with phased plans dependent on POC success .
  • Manufacturing scale: New Austin facility plus contract manufacturers position Accelsius to meet binary, large‑scale orders; long‑term plan keeps 25–30% manufacturing in‑house for quality and leverage management .
  • Capital access: CFO stated a “high degree of comfort” in access to capital to bridge to commercial traction, despite going concern disclosure .

Estimates Context

Results vs S&P Global consensus (small sample sizes; high variability):

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD) – Actual vs Consensus$224,000 vs $580,000* (Miss) *$476,000 vs $686,670* (Miss) *
Normalized/Primary EPS – Actual vs Consensus1.7713 vs -0.19* (Beat)0.5856 vs -0.17* (Beat)

Other estimate context:

  • FY 2025 revenue consensus: $3.19M* (3 ests) | Target price consensus: $14.5 (2 ests)* [GetEstimates].

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global. Differences between GAAP EPS and “Primary/Normalized EPS” reflect non-GAAP/normalized adjustments in consensus frameworks.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Accelsius commercialization is the near‑term stock driver: deployments, hyperscaler POCs, OEM ramp, and a 21‑partner channel create multiple shots on goal. Watch for production conversions and larger order announcements .
  • H2 set‑up is critical: management reiterated bookings and revenue inflections weighted to the back half; fulfillment windows around 90 days could allow faster revenue recognition if orders land on time .
  • Liquidity vs dilution: $27M debenture proceeds and SEPA capacity support runway, but the 10‑Q’s going concern language and layered instruments (convertibles, warrants, earnouts) imply ongoing financing/dilution risk until revenue inflects .
  • Near‑term numbers stay small on GAAP: amortization and ramp costs will pressure margins while revenue is in pilot/POC stage; Adjusted EBITDA improvement is a positive sequential signal to monitor .
  • Technical differentiation resonates: third‑party study (Jacobs) showing 28–40% OpEx savings vs single‑phase and dielectric fluid safety are strong competitive points in AI rack‑density era .
  • Non‑Accelsius optionality: AeroFlexx APR recognition and patents plus Refinity EPC engagement provide additional, longer‑dated value creation paths .
  • Trading setup: stock likely reacts to proof‑of‑life datapoints—hyperscaler POC delivery, OEM order flow, and any disclosed production orders; estimate breadth is thin, so beats/misses will be noisy but catalytic.

Appendix: Additional Detail

Comparative revenue/earnings vs estimates (chronological)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue – Actual$224,000 $476,000
Revenue – Consensus Mean$580,000*$686,670*
Normalized/Primary EPS – Actual1.7713*0.5856*
Normalized/Primary EPS – Consensus Mean-0.19*-0.17*
# of Estimates (Revenue / EPS)2 / 1*3 / 3*

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Sources:

  • Q2 2025 8‑K/press release & exhibits, and Form 10‑Q: results, segments, goodwill, liquidity, debentures, WTI facility .
  • Q2 2025 earnings call transcript: Accelsius deployments, POCs, OEM/partners, Jacobs study, manufacturing, capital access .
  • Prior quarters for trend: Q1 2025 8‑K and call; Q4 2024 8‑K .
  • AeroFlexx press releases (Q2 2025): APR recognition and patents .